A new behavior report by Gourmet Gift Baskets examines when the holiday shopping season starts over the last five years. The analysis tracks when consumer interest starts and peaks, identifies trends over time, and highlights states with the highest propensity for holiday gift searches.
Key Takeaways
- Early shoppers kick off in September with personalized gift categories like “Gifts for her,” “Gifts for him,” and “Fruit baskets,” starting around day 254 (mid-September), a full 10–12 weeks before the holidays.
- Peaks are shifting earlier across core retail terms, with Black Friday deals, Cyber Monday deals, and Holiday shopping moving earlier by roughly 10–13 days per year on average.
- Northeast and Mid-Atlantic lead holiday gift search intensity, with New York posting the top overall interest score at 86.6, followed by New Jersey at 84.7 and Pennsylvania at 83.
Holiday Shopping Interest Starting Earlier Each Year
Holiday search peaks are shifting earlier each year, with major deal events and gift categories reaching maximum interest weeks before the holidays, while some traditions remain constant.
Earliest Peaks (Mid-November):
- Gifts for kids (week 45 of the year), Gifts for her (week 45), Gifts for him (week 45), Holiday shopping (week 45), Gifts for women (week 45), Gifts for men (week 45), and Gifts for grandparents (week 45) reach their highest search levels first.
Mid-Season Peaks (Late November–Early December):
- Holiday gifts (week 46 of the year), Christmas gifts (week 46), Cyber Monday deals (week 46), Fruit baskets (week 47), Handmade gifts (week 47), Black Friday deals (week 47), Gifts for dad (week 48), Gifts for mom (week 48), and Last minute gift (week 48) peak in the weeks following Thanksgiving.
Latest Peaks (Early December):
- “Last-minute gift” peaks last, supplying for procrastinators largely driven by shipping cutoffs.
Peak Trends: Earlier Each Year
- Most major shopping terms now peak about 10–13 days earlier per year.
- Gifts for grandparents, Holiday gifts, and Christmas gifts display less dramatic peak timing shifts.
Timing of Holiday Shopping Interest
We analyzed weekly Google Trends search interest across a curated set of 16 holiday-shopping keywords from 2020 to 2025. For each keyword and year, we identified the season start (onset) using a 20 percent-of-peak threshold and the peak week within the seasonal window, then measured how these timings have shifted over time.
Some shoppers start as early as September, and others wait for big events or last-minute deadlines.
Early Starters (September):
- Gifts for her (week 37), Gifts for him (week 37), Fruit baskets (week 37), Handmade gifts (week 38), and Holiday shopping (week 38) show onset in early/mid-September.
- Categories reflect advance planning for personalized or practical gifts, lengthy delivery windows, and retailer content calendars.
Mid-Season Starters (October–Early November):
- Gift ideas (week 39), Gifts for kids (week 39), Holiday gifts (week 41), Gifts for dad (week 41), Christmas gifts (week 42), Gifts for women (week 42), Gifts for men (week 42), Gifts for grandparents (week 42), and Gifts for mom (week 42) begin late September to mid-October.
- Black Friday deals activate in week 44 (early November).
Late Starters (Mid–Late November):
- Cyber Monday deals (week 45) and last-minute gifts (week 45) see interest surge in mid-to-late November, fitting urgent, deadline-driven shopping behaviors.
State-Level Holiday Gift Search Propensity
State-level results reveal where holiday gift searching is most intense, with top states identified and regional differences highlighted for specific gift types. We analyzed which states are already showing high interest in holiday shopping using data from September 9 to October 10, 2025, to determine where the interest score is highest based on five keywords that are already present in all states.
Top 15 States in September-October 2025 (Average Interest Score):
- New York — 89.8
- Pennsylvania — 88.0
- New Jersey — 82.6
- Ohio — 80.8
- Michigan — 78.0
- Missouri — 76.6
- Wisconsin — 76.6
- Tennessee — 74.8
- Virginia — 74.6
- Georgia — 74.2
- Indiana — 73.4
- Colorado — 73.2
- Minnesota — 72.4
- Illinois — 71.4
- Massachusetts — 70.8
Category-Specific State Leaders, over the last 5 years:
- Gifts for dad: NY, RI, NH, MA, NJ
- Gifts for grandparents: ND, SD, VT, ME, MT
- Gifts for her/him: NY, RI, NH, MA,/li>
- Gifts for kids: PA, CT, NY, MA
- Black Friday/Cyber Monday deals: NY, NJ, PA, CT
- Last-minute gift: NY, NJ, RI, MA
Holiday shopping search behavior reveals a clear seasonal rhythm that has evolved significantly over the past five years. Personalized gift categories now activate in early September, while promotional deal terms peak earlier each year.
Methodology
Data Sources
- Weekly Google Trends search interest for 17 keywords, October 2020–October 2025
- State-level average search interest by keyword
- Keywords include general holiday shopping, recipient gifts, and promotional events (Black Friday, Cyber Monday)
Analytical Framework:
- Season window: September 1–December 31 annually
- Onset detection: First week when search interest reaches at least 20% of the yearly peak for each keyword
- Peak detection: Week of the highest search within the window
- Trend analysis: Linear regression to measure timing shifts across years
- State scoring: Average normalized interest across all keywords per state
Key Assumptions and Limitations
- Search interest is relative, not absolute; values are normalized by keyword
- 20% onset threshold is a modeling choice—altering it only shifts dates, not relative patterns
- Off-season anomalies excluded by focusing on the September–December window
- State-level insights reflect five-year averages, not annual snapshots